Deficits

November 17 - On the blog "Capital Gains and Games," contributor Stan Collender imagines an alternative fiscal history in which the previous two presidential administrations had worked to pay off the national debt by the end of this decade:

"The bailouts we're implementing and talking about today would have been of far less concern than they are.  Indeed, the $2 trillion or so in additional debt the federal government is going to incur this year would likely have been welcomed by the bond market.  The additional interest payments that we're going to have to pay for decades would have been on top of an annual interest bill that by now would have been less than $100 billion a year and, therefore, not much of a concern."

November 13 - The Treasury Department announced today that October's budget deficit was $237.8 billion dollars, making it the worst monthly deficit in history, and four times larger than the October 2007 budget deficit of $56.8 billion. Last week, CBO projected a much lower (but still high by historic standards) October deficit of $134 billion; most of the difference between the two estimates is the result of how CBO and Treasury account for the portion of $700 billion TARP rescue package spent in October. CBO accounts for this $115 billion on a net present value basis, predicting the net cost will be $17 billion; the Treasury Department, meanwhile, accounts for the $115 billion on a straight cash-flow basis. 

Earlier this week, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected that the 2009 budget deficit will reach $1.01 trillion.

October 31 - To help voters better understand the fiscal implications of the candidates' campaign proposals, CRFB released four reports this week:

• Guide to Social Security: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Stimulus Proposals: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Health Care: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Tax Policy: The 2008 Presidential Election

In addition, CRFB released a special health care update to its voter guide: "Promises, Promises: A Fiscal Voter Guide to the 2008 Election".

October 29 - The New York Times published an article this morning that looks at how both presidential candidates' spending policies might affect the deficit.  The piece reviews the largest components of McCain's and Obama's spending plans-and their proposals to pay for them-along with the candidates' prospects for narrowing the deficit.  An excerpt:

Conservative and liberal analysts agree that the next president should not be expected to balance the budget in his first term, because short-term deficit spending can stimulate the economy and the crisis is forcing the government to spend more in aid even as it collects less in taxes.  But for the long run, they say, the president's fiscal record will hinge on whether he can achieve the health care cost savings each promises, which in turn will help control the fast-rising expenses for Medicare and Medicaid. Neither candidate has a comprehensive proposal to address unsustainable growth in those programs.